'Everything would spin out of control': What will Putin do if Ukraine's winning streak continues? (2023)

Like the first green shoot after a devastating bushfire, the blue-and-yellow Ukrainian flag was raised above the burned-out city hall in Izium on Tuesday, just days after the city was recaptured from Russian forces.

It's one of dozens of settlements in Ukraine's north-east Kharkiv region back under Ukrainian control, following lightning advances made by Kyiv's soldiers last weekend.

Abandoned Russian tanks and armoured vehicles point to a chaotic retreat by the occupying force, which Moscow has tried to pass off as a "regroup".

The surprise eastern counteroffensive, planned months in advance, has been hailed as a turning point in the war.

But it comes as a separate assaultdrags on in the south of the country, whileRussia maintains its grip on the sprawling Donbass region.

Whether Ukraine can capitalise on the momentum that saw it claw back thousands of square kilometres relies on several key factors, not least the ongoing support of the West.

How Ukraine scored its biggest victory since the war began

It only took a few days for Ukraine to liberate as much territory as Russia had captured over several months, as the occupying force crumbled then withdrew from Izium on Saturday.

Ukraine appears to have borrowed a US military tactic favoured during the Iraq War called a "thunder run".

The daring, high-speed manoeuvre involves a military convoy using heavy weapons and armoured vehicles to plunge into enemy territory and overrun the surprised defending forces.

'Everything would spin out of control': What will Putin do if Ukraine's winning streak continues? (1)

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has since claimed more than 6,000 square kilometres has been reclaimed in the east and the south since the beginning of September.

The situation was so dire in some towns and villages, residents later told reporters, that Russian troops were seen fleeing on stolen bicycles, attempting to disguise themselves in civilian clothes.

"The Russian army these days is demonstrating its best ability — to show its back," Mr Zelenskyy said in a video address.

The eastern city of Izium is a logistical hub and the gateway to the Donbass region, which includes the two Russian-controlled separatist states Donetsk and Lugansk.

Winning the city back, combined with Ukraine's other sweeping gains, is perhaps the biggest upset in the war since Russia's dramatic retreat from the capital Kyiv in late March.

(Video) Can anyone win? Experts explain Russia Ukraine war latest

But less than a fortnight ago, the battle for the southern port city of Kherson seemed to be Ukraine's main priority.

So, did something change?Or was a southern fake-out always on the cards?

The tightly held plan that caught Putin off guard

It all began with a war game.

With the deadline of winter looming, the Ukrainian president needed a consequential win to boost his people's morale and shore up future support from the West.

"Slowly Ukraine was starting to lose face and the Western countries were starting to lose faith in the Ukrainian Armed Forces," said Marina Miron, a research fellow in the Defence Studies Department at King's College in London.

"So, first of all, they saw themselves under pressure to deliver something, to deliver some sort of victory.

"Because, before that, all the victories were essentially in the information domain, but you have to show something on the battlefield."

The Ukrainian military devised a plan to reclaim Kherson and Mariupol, both home to prizedports, hoping to turn the tide six months into the war.

During the summer, US and Ukrainian officials teased out the possibility of a broad offensive in the south targeting the strategic cities, which grant access to the Black Sea.

But the exercise, first reported by CNN, suggested such an ambitious blitz was doomed to fail.

The Ukrainians were adamant, though: they needed to move quickly to stop Moscow further exploiting its control of gas supplies to Europe when the chill sets in.

The continent has already seen a dramatic spike in energy prices, with Russia's deputy prime minister now promising to cut gas exports by a third.

Drawing on US intelligence, the Ukrainians planned two smaller offensives.

They hoped to turn their dominance in the information sphere — plus an influx of new weaponry — into a decisive win on the ground.

Did the US tip the scales?

For the past several months, the conflict has ground on in the east and the south with neither side seemingly able to break the stalemate.

But, behind the scenes, Ukraine was quietly amassing billions of dollars' worth of foreign military aid — and learning how to use it.

Since the war began on February 24, the United States alone has injected some $US14.5 billion ($21.7 billion) into the war, including providing HIMARS, a type of powerful long-range rocket launcher.

(Video) Kherson Retreat: How Russia Lost Control of the Key Ukrainian City | WSJ

The munitions for the GPS-guided systems can strike targets with precision from more than 60 kilometres away.

By some accounts, thefive-tonneHIMARS trucks, the first of which arrived in June, are having an outsized impact on the battlefield because they allow the Ukrainians to hit targets deep behind enemy lines.

But Dr Miron argued US intelligence probably played a weightier role.

"I think the importance of HIMARS was basically, in a tactical sense, it created some parity in terms of artillery," she said.

"However, I don't think it was the catalyst of change in this war."

It now seems likely the two-pronged offensive — capturing the east while eyes were on the south — was always the plan.

"The Ukrainians are conducting operations that are forcing the Russians to make decisions on the battlefield about where they're going to apply their resources, and how," a senior US military official said during a recent Pentagon briefing.

"So, what we've seen is the Ukrainians applying the capabilities that they have, [including] those that have been provided by the US and our allies … in order to again change the dynamics on the battlefield."

But the strategic masterstroke, and the thousands of soldiers needed to pull it off, came from the Ukrainians alone, the official was careful to note.

'Everything would spin out of control': What will Putin do if Ukraine's winning streak continues? (2)

Taras Berezovets, a former Ukrainian national security adviser turned special forces press officer, went so far as to label the tactic a "big special disinformation operation".

"[Russia] thought it would be in the south and moved their equipment," he told the Guardian.

"Then, instead of the south, the offensive happened where they least expected, and this caused them to panic and flee."

Why Ukraine's timing was everything

In Russia, President Vladimir Putin has carefully stage-managed the domestic coverage of the invasion of Ukraine.

He still refuses to call it a war, instead euphemistically describing it as a "special military operation", meant to "de-Nazify" Ukraine and liberate its people.

On state television, he has consistently been backed by a cheer squad of presenters parroting Kremlin talking points.

(Video) ‘We have stopped them’: Zelensky speaks about Ukraine’s progress in war with Russia

But even some of Mr Putin's most ardent supporters appear shaken by Ukraine's change of fortunes.

The frustration is also starting to seep through online.

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"We need to be honest, the Ukrainian command has outplayed us here," said Yuri Podolya, a pro-Kremlin military blogger with 2.2 million followers on Telegram.

Mr Podolya called the recent losses "large" and said the Russian Ministry of Defence had failed to rectify "problems identified by the first months of the war".

On the world stage, Russia is also becoming increasingly isolated, even from its most powerful allies.

In separate meetings with Mr Putin this week, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi appeared to tacitly rebuke the invasion of Ukraine, while China's leader Xi Jinping made no mention of it at all.

"I know that today's era is not an era of war," Mr Modi said.

Mr Putin has held power in Russia since 1999, both as president and prime minister.

His potential electoral opposition has been sidelined — or jailed — but he is acutely sensitive to public sentiment.

He's also spent roughly two decades building up Russia's modern military, once ranked among the world's best, which now appears to be in tatters.

In a statement, the Ministry of Defence sought to frame Russia's hasty retreat as a pre-planned decision to regroup and redeploy.

But it has already lashed out with missile strikes on critical infrastructure, plunging parts of the country into darkness and flooding Mr Zelenskyy's hometown.

'Everything would spin out of control': What will Putin do if Ukraine's winning streak continues? (3)

(Video) How Ukraine got the upper hand against Russia

"Strength is the only source of Putin's legitimacy," Abbas Gallyamov, a former speechwriter for Mr Putin, told The New York Times.

"And in a situation in which it turns out that he has no strength, his legitimacy will start dropping toward zero."

Is this the beginning of the end of the war?

The Ukrainians are hoping the West will help them solidify their gains in what remains contested territory, while trying to rebuild cities devastated by months of Russian occupation.

After surveying the destruction left behind in Izium, including mass graves, Mr Zelenskyy has also called on foreign governments to investigate alleged human rights abuses.

"Earlier, when we looked up, we always looked for the blue sky," he wrote in a statement.

"Today, when we look up, we are looking for only one thing — the flag of Ukraine."

His foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, also condemned the recent missile strikes on water systems as "a war crime" and an "act of terror".

Loading Twitter content

It remains unclear how far Russia will be willing to go to halt Ukraine's momentum.

But some fear cyber, chemical and even nuclear attacks may be on the cards.

So far, the European Union's top official, Ursula von der Leyen, has been a sympathetic ear.

"It's absolutely vital and necessary to support Ukraine with the military equipment they need to defend themselves," she said.

But the US has rebuffed a request to provide more HIMARS munitions.

"I'm not sure that Ukraine will get the weapons it's requesting because … the West [is] not interested in having Ukraine so powerful that it can potentially launch attacks deep inside Russia, because then everything would spin out of control," Dr Miron said.

Posted, updated

(Video) Ukraine War: 'Talks are going to have to start happening'

FAQs

What would happen if Russia and the US went to war? ›

A full-scale nuclear war between the U.S. and Russia would see global food systems obliterated and over 5 billion people die of hunger.

Is Russia running out of weapons? ›

"Their gains are being reversed. The costs to Russia - in people and equipment are staggering. We know - and Russian commanders on the ground know - that their supplies and munitions are running out. "Russia's forces are exhausted.

Has Russia stolen grain from Ukraine? ›

Ukrainian agricultural holding company HarvEast reported that Russians had taken about 200,000 metric tons of grain, which CEO Dmitry Skornyakov said cost his company about $50 million. He said his employees in the occupied Ukrainian city of Mariupol reported the grain was trucked across the border into Russia.

How much of Ukraine does Russia control? ›

Ukraine's military has had significant momentum since September in pushing Russia out of the northeast and southern parts of the county. Russia currently controls about 18 percent of Ukraine. That area includes much of the Donetsk and Luhansk Provinces in the east, as well as Crimea, which it illegally annexed in 2014.

Would humans survive a nuclear war? ›

Nuclear weapons are deadly, and after an impact on a major city tens to hundreds of thousands would likely die. But the worst destruction, where the chances of survival are least likely, is confined to a "severe damage zone," Buddemeier said.

What would happen if a nuclear war broke out? ›

According to a peer-reviewed study published in the journal Nature Food in August 2022, a full-scale nuclear war between the U.S. and Russia would kill 360 million people directly and more than 5 billion people would die from starvation.

Will Russia run out of missiles in Ukraine? ›

There has not been any definitive evidence presented publicly that Russia is running out of its best aerial weapons. But if it were, it would at least make it harder for Russian troops to hit cities like the capital, Kyiv, far from the front lines.

How many weapons does Russia have left? ›

This indicates that Russia has access to roughly 1,500 older nuclear weapon stocks and an additional 2,889 "retired" weapons. Overall, Russia's arsenal has drastically decreased from the estimated 40,000 weapons they were supposed to have in the 1980s.

Can Russia bear arms? ›

Firearms may be acquired for self-defense, hunting, or sports activities, as well as for collection purposes. Carrying permits may be issued for hunting firearms licensed for hunting purposes.

Does the US get its wheat from Russia? ›

Russia – US trade is based on massive natural resources

Territory controlled by Russia is used to produce huge amounts of wheat, corn and other crops.

Is Russia destroying Ukraine wheat fields? ›

The Russian blockade and bombardments are cutting off thousands of tons of grain, threatening the food supply in countries that rely on wheat exports.

Who buys the most grain from Ukraine? ›

However, UN figures show that the bulk of Ukrainian food exported in the last three months has been going to Spain, Turkey, Italy, China and the Netherlands. Before the war, the top importers of Ukrainian wheat were Egypt, Indonesia and Bangladesh.

How many tanks has Russia lost Ukraine? ›

And it's a staggering figure as well. According to the Dutch warfare research group Oryx, Russia has lost 1,450 tanks since the war began, nearly 900 of which have been damaged or destroyed. The rest were abandoned by the Russians, and many of those ultimately have since been captured by the Ukrainians.

Is Zaporizhzhia under Russian control? ›

Zaporizhzhia is the largest nuclear plant in Europe, with six reactors. It has been under the control of the Russian military since early March but has continued to be operated by its Ukrainian staff. It is near the frontline of the war in territory which President Putin has said has been annexed by Russia.

Who does Saudi support Ukraine or Russia? ›

In United Nations General Assembly Resolution 68/262 Saudi Arabia voted in favor of "territorial integrity of Ukraine" and strongly supports Ukraine.

How far away do you need to be to survive a nuclear war? ›

At a distance of 40-45 miles, a person would have at most 3 hours after the fallout began to find shelter. Considerably smaller radiation doses will make people seriously ill. Thus, the survival prospects of persons immediately downwind of the burst point would be slim unless they could be sheltered or evacuated.

Where is the safest place to live if there is a nuclear war? ›

Some estimates name Maine, Oregon, Northern California, and Western Texas as some of the safest locales in the case of nuclear war, due to their lack of large urban centers and nuclear power plants.

Which countries would survive a nuclear war? ›

A study last month found that the countries with the best hope of at least seeing their civilisation survive during the ten years after a nuclear war would be Argentina and Australia.

What cities would be targeted in nuclear war? ›

The six most likely target cities in the US are as follows: New York, Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Washington, DC. These countries will stay prepared to combat any type of nuclear attack shortly.

How would you survive a nuclear war? ›

In the event of a nuclear attack, you need to act quickly. In the event of a nuclear threat alert, immediately go to the nearest shelter and take your emergency suitcase with you. If you are not in an underground shelter, do not approach the windows, stay as far as possible from the outer walls and roof.

How long would it take for the Earth to recover from nuclear war? ›

Recovery would probably take about 3-10 years, but the Academy's study notes that long term global changes cannot be completely ruled out. The reduced ozone concentrations would have a number of consequences outside the areas in which the detonations occurred.

Can Ukraine shoot down cruise missiles? ›

The Armed Forces of Ukraine shot down a cruise missile using a man-portable anti-aircraft system. This happened during one of the largest missile attacks during the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russian invaders. The military published a video of the combat mission.

Will Ukraine get anti aircraft missiles? ›

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters Thursday that Ukraine is expected to receive advanced U.S. air defense systems “early next month,” meeting one of Kyiv's key demands for military assistance as Russia continues to pummel city centers, energy hubs and other civilian targets with a barrage of missiles and ...

How accurate are Russian missiles? ›

In 2017, a noted Russian military journalist pointed out in state media that the Kalibr naval cruise missile had an accuracy of 30 meters and the Kh-101 air-launched cruise missile had an “accuracy of five to 50 meters,” which is quite different than a “few meters” or near-zero CEP.

What is Russia's most destructive weapon? ›

The Tsar Bomba (Russian: Царь-бо́мба) (code name: Ivan or Vanya), also known by the alphanumerical designation "AN602", was a thermonuclear aerial bomb, and the most powerful nuclear weapon ever created and tested.

Who has more weapons between US and Russia? ›

Russia possesses a total of 5,977 nuclear warheads as of 2022, the largest stockpile of nuclear warheads in the world; the second-largest stockpile is the United States' 5,428 warheads. Russia's deployed missiles (those actually ready to be launched) number about 1,588, second to the United States' 1,644.

Can Russia resupply its army? ›

Western sanctions have hampered Russia's ability to resupply its army, a U.S. report says. The Russian military has lost 6,000 pieces of equipment since invading Ukraine and has been expending munitions at a rate it cannot replace, according to a newly released U.S. government report.

Does China supply Russia with arms? ›

These included joint aerospace engine development, export to China of Russia's advanced anti-aircraft weapon systems, supermaneuverable fighter jets, and military helicopters.

How much is an ak47 in Russia? ›

As noted by the Russian trade representative in the United States Alexander Stadnik in an interview with ITAR-TASS, the average price of the civilian version of the Kalashnikov has already reached $1,500, although the price of the weapon on the American market just a few months ago was around $600.

What pistol do Russian officers carry? ›

The MP-443 Grach (Russian: MП-443 Грач, lit. 'rook') or "PYa", for "Pistolet Yarygina" ("Yarygin Pistol"), following traditional Russian naming procedure (Russian: Пистолет Ярыгина), is the Russian standard military-issue side arm.

What does Russia buy from USA? ›

Russia Imports from United StatesValueYear
Essential oils, perfumes, cosmetics, toileteries$292.40M2021
Articles of iron or steel$216.20M2021
Rubbers$213.78M2021
Organic chemicals$184.09M2021
93 more rows

Who produces more wheat USA or Russia? ›

Wheat is a widely cultivated crop whose seed is a grain used all over the world as a staple food.
...
Wheat Production by Country 2022.
Country2020 Production (tons)
China134,254,710
India107,590,000
Russia85,896,326
United States49,690,680
118 more rows

Where does America get most of its wheat? ›

Indeed, in 18, the US imported 11.2 kmt of Wheat, rising by 44 & 382 kmt YoY in 19 and 20, respectively. The primary origin for US Wheat imports is Canada, representing ~ 81% of all US Wheat imports since 18, with 802 kmt. So far, on Aug 22, the US only imported ~105 kmt of Wheat.

Who supplies more wheat Russia or Ukraine? ›

Russia produces 11% of the world's wheat and Ukraine produces 3%. These countries make up a larger proportion of global exports.

Who does Ukraine sell their wheat to? ›

Top destinations for wheat exports include Egypt, Indonesia, Turkey, Pakistan and Bangladesh. December futures prices for wheat on the Paris exchange slipped by around 5% after the deal was announced.

Does Ukraine supply wheat to Russia? ›

Russia and Ukraine together supply more than a quarter of the world's wheat, and coming disruptions could fuel higher food prices and social unrest.

What is Ukraines largest export? ›

Agricultural products are Ukraine's most important exports. In 2021 they totaled $27.8 billion, accounting for 41 percent of the country's $68 billion in overall exports. Ukraine is normally the world's top producer of sunflower meal, oil, and seed and the world's top exporter of sunflower meal and oil.

How many grain ships have left Ukraine? ›

A total of 113 vessels loaded with Ukrainian-produced grain left for Asian, European and African countries.

What products does Ukraine provide to the world? ›

Exports The top exports of Ukraine are Seed Oils ($5.32B), Corn ($4.89B), Wheat ($4.61B), Iron Ore ($4.27B), and Semi-Finished Iron ($3.03B), exporting mostly to China ($7.26B), Poland ($3.26B), Russia ($2.97B), Turkey ($2.5B), and Egypt ($2.39B).

How many tanks and helicopters has Russia lost in Ukraine? ›

7 that Russia had also lost 2,771 tanks, 5,630 armored fighting vehicles, 1,782 artillery systems, 391 multiple launch rocket systems, 202 air defense systems, 260 helicopters, 277 airplanes, 1,472 drones, and 16 boats.

How many fighter jets has Russia lost Ukraine? ›

I write about ships, planes, tanks, drones, missiles and satellites.

How many Ukraine helicopters has Russia lost? ›

Russia has lost 52 of its own, higher-flying helicopters.

How far would Ukraine nuclear fallout travel? ›

Cizelj estimated a 30-kilometer radius.

How much of Zaporizhzhia does Russia control? ›

The city of Zaporizhzhia is not far from the front lines of the conflict. Though the city is under Ukrainian control, about 75% of the greater Zaporizhzhia region is occupied by Russian forces.

What countries are under Russian control? ›

As of October 2022, Russia occupies territories in Donetsk Oblast, Kharkiv Oblast, Kherson Oblast, Luhansk Oblast, Mykolaiv Oblast, and Zaporizhzhia Oblast as well as Crimea, with its armed forces, assisted by Russian mercenaries, Chechen Kadyrovites, and Russian-backed separatists of the DPR and LPR.

Which country has given the most help to Ukraine? ›

The United States has by far provided the most military assistance to Ukraine, more than every other country combined.

How many countries are helping Ukraine against Russia? ›

Representatives from more than 50 nations pledged to get more military capabilities into the hands of Ukrainian forces battling Russian invaders, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III said today in Brussels.

Who are Saudi Arabia's closest allies? ›

Pakistan has been called the closest non-Arab ally of Saudi Arabia, or "Saudi Arabia's closest Muslim ally" Saudi Arabia has been rocking the cradle of Pakistani politics, brokering truce among warring leaders, providing asylum to those being exiled and generously lavishing funds on a state strapped for cash.

Who is stronger Russia or USA? ›

In short, Russia is ranked 2nd out of 140 in military strength while the US is ranked 1st. As per the army population, Russia has 142,320,790 soldiers while The US has 334,998,398 soldiers. The available manpower is 69,737,187 with Russia and 147,399,295 with the United States.

Did the US ever fight Russia? ›

Contents. During World War II, the United States and the Soviet Union fought together as allies against the Axis powers. However, the relationship between the two nations was a tense one.

When did Russia stop being a US ally? ›

U.S.-Soviet Alliance, 1941–1945.

How is the war in Russia affecting the US economy? ›

Disrupted supply chains and resource shortages are among the factors that could contribute to making the US's already high inflation worse. And with oil and energy costs going up, it could get more expensive to buy things overall.

Who has better weapons US or Russia? ›

Russia possesses a total of 5,977 nuclear warheads as of 2022, the largest stockpile of nuclear warheads in the world; the second-largest stockpile is the United States' 5,428 warheads. Russia's deployed missiles (those actually ready to be launched) number about 1,588, second to the United States' 1,644.

Who is stronger China or USA? ›

The United States enjoys overwhelming advantages over China. The United States outweighs China in terms of gross domestic product (GDP), technology, and military spending. China's GDP is 15 percent of global GDP, compared to 24 percent of the United States.

Can US Navy defeat China? ›

The U.S. bomber force, even at just 141 aircraft, is a good matchup against the Chinese navy and China's overall maritime capacity. The U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence forecasts that by 2030 China's maritime force will total over 800 warships, quasi-military coast guard cutters, and large “maritime militia” ships.

Could the US ever be invaded? ›

Geographic feasibility. Many experts have considered the US impossible to invade because of its major industries, reliable and fast supply lines, large geographical size, geographic location, population size, and difficult regional features.

Has the US ever been invaded? ›

The largest invasion of American soil during World War II came in the form of eight Nazi saboteurs sent to the United States on a doomed mission known as Operation Pastorius.

Has the US ever invaded Russia if so when? ›

Unfortunately, this is not the plot for another trashy mini-series. The United States actually did invade and occupy Russia during the end of World War I. An understanding of America's invasion and occupation of the Soviet Union in 1918-1919 is important for two reasons.

Did Russia claim US land? ›

The Russian colonization of North America covers the period from 1732 to 1867, when the Russian Empire laid claim to northern Pacific Coast territories in the Americas. Russian colonial possessions in the Americas are collectively known as Russian America.

Why is Ukraine so important to the United States? ›

The United States reaffirms its unwavering support for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders, extending to its territorial waters. The U.S.-Ukraine relationship serves as a cornerstone for security, democracy, and human rights in Ukraine and the broader region.

Who won ww2 USA or Russia? ›

The Allied Powers won the war. The USA was one of the Allied Powers, and Russia was part of the Soviet Union, which also fought with the Allied Powers. So, you could say that both the USA and Russia won World War 2.

What does USA rely on Russia for? ›

United States Imports from RussiaValueYear
Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products$18.12B2021
Pearls, precious stones, metals, coins$2.98B2021
Iron and steel$2.77B2021
Fertilizers$1.28B2021
91 more rows

What happens to economy during war? ›

Putting aside the very real human cost, war has also serious economic costs – damage to infrastructure, a decline in the working population, inflation, shortages, uncertainty, a rise in debt and disruption to normal economic activity.

How will Russia's invasion of Ukraine affect the US economy? ›

Russia's invasion of Ukraine could have economic repercussions globally and in the United States, ramping up uncertainty, roiling commodity markets and potentially pushing up inflation as gas and food prices rise around the world.

Videos

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2. Did Nato get Putin and Ukraine wrong? Former head of Nato explains
(Channel 4 News)
3. Ukraine: Russia 'fleeing' Kherson as its civilians reveal brutality
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4. Putin's craving for power | DW Documentary
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5. Putin's Attack on Ukraine: Documenting War Crimes (full documentary) | FRONTLINE
(FRONTLINE PBS | Official)
6. ‘Defeat in Ukraine could be the end of Putin’ - expert explains
(Channel 4 News)
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